May construction materials export volume can continue in June

In May 2012, China's wire export volume increased by 82.43% year-on-year and 21.11% quarter-on-quarter; threaded wire exports increased by 110.17% year-on-year and 90.95% quarter-on-quarter; total volume increased by 84.03% year-on-year and 24.10% quarter-on-quarter. Figure 1: China's wire snail export trend From the above data, it is not difficult to see that China's wire snail exports in May showed a significant increase compared with April. The reason for this increase, in addition to the traditional steel consumption peak season and the decline of the RMB exchange rate, there is another important reason - the increase in the international price difference of the thread. Figure 2: Thread international price difference trend With China's steel output high and steel prices continue to fall, steel companies have turned their eyes to the international market. At present, the domestic steel price decline is significantly larger than the international, as shown in Figure 3, taking the thread as an example, the thread spread of the US and China market on May 31 was 135 US dollars / ton, an increase of 18 US dollars / ton compared with April 30; the thread spread of the Central European market It is 40 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton from April 30; the thread price difference between China and Japan is 42 US dollars / ton, up by 29 US dollars / ton compared with April 30; the thread price difference between China and South Korea is -20 US dollars / ton , compared with April 30, an increase of 17 US dollars / ton; China and Southeast Asia market thread price difference of 12 US dollars / ton, compared with April 30, a decline of 1 US dollar / ton; China and Turkey market thread price difference of 2 US dollars / ton, compared with April On the 30th, it increased by US$9/ton; the price difference between China and the Middle East market was US$22/ton, up by US$19/ton from April 30. It can be seen that except for South Korea, the prices of rebar in other countries are higher than those in China, and the spread has increased. Among them, the steel imports have increased due to the slow recovery of the US economy, and the amount of steel imported from China has also shown an upward trend. It has stimulated the export enthusiasm of China's steel companies. Table 1: Thread June International Spread Then, can China’s import and export volume continue in June? It is not difficult to find out from Table 1. In June, except for the spread between China, Japan and China, the spread between China and other countries is shrinking significantly, and has fallen to a negative value, losing its price advantage. With the deteriorating European debt crisis, the slowdown in economic growth in emerging market countries and the prevalence of trade protectionism, Fubao analysts expect that the export situation of China's steel products will become increasingly severe, and exports in June may be weaker than May.

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