The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center recently released the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in July, which fell 0.1 percentage point from the previous month to 50.1%. Among them, the performance of the automobile manufacturing industry is underperforming. PMI has quickly dived after hitting a high of 60.4% in March this year. It has been below 50% for four consecutive months since April, and the inventory pressure is relatively high, indicating the industry's off-season. The characteristics are obvious. The auto industry PMI index is more than 50% continuous and can reflect the operating conditions of the auto industry. The data shows that the auto order index, production index and import index of the auto manufacturing industry in July were all below 50%. It shows that the current demand in the automotive industry is weak, and the downward pressure on oversupply has not been eliminated. In particular, the contradiction of overcapacity has not been significantly eased. In the first seven months of this year, automobile sales showed a slight increase. The automobile industry has shifted from a high-speed growth period to a long-term development stage of steady growth. At the same time, it faces the constraints and influences of macroeconomic slowdown and purchase restriction measures. The domestic auto market is not optimistic, and the inventory pressure is further increased. In order to complete the sales target, the OEM has increased pressure on dealers and increased sales through inventory backlog, resulting in an “illusion†of both vehicle sales and sales growth. The inventory pressure of dealers has further increased, and large-scale price reduction sales have already been carried out, but the effect is not obvious, but it has caused consumers to wait and see. According to data released recently by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory of auto dealers increased significantly in the first half of 2012, and high-inventory brands accounted for about one-third of the brands surveyed. In January this year, the inventory factor was 1.49. In February, the inventory factor reached 2.3. The inventory factor in March-May showed a significant upward trend. The inventory factor in June dropped slightly, but still reached 2.09. The inventory factor is the ratio of the current inventory to the current sales. If the inventory factor is greater than 1.5, it reflects the inventory level. If the inventory factor is greater than 2.5, the inventory is too high, and the operating pressure and risk are very large. In the automotive industry, the pressure of inventory pressure has long been awaited. According to a survey report on the business activities of auto companies provided by Monita, the actual sales in July were in poor condition, lower than expected at the beginning of the month. The main reason is that in the face of the slowdown of China's auto market, the driving effect of automobile consumption tends to be exhausted, and the company's production suspension has increased. Especially with the arrival of the hot season, automakers will choose to stop production during high temperature vacation. As a result, the new orders index and production index of the automobile manufacturing industry in July continued to remain below 50%. However, the July PMI indicates that there are still many factors affecting the company's production expectations, and it is expected that the recovery of production will take some time. According to industry insiders, the auto industry is waiting for a new round of stimulus policies in the country, given the low industry sentiment. In response to the current problem, the policy orientation should focus on “three benefits†and “stable growth and benefitâ€. First, it is conducive to expanding effective demand and stabilizing economic growth; second, it is conducive to eliminating backward production capacity, improving market supply and demand, and adjusting economic structure; third, it is conducive to reducing costs and improving economic efficiency. In the case that the automobile industry has not changed greatly, it is expected that there should be relevant automobile consumption policies in July, but there is still no exact news yet; and negative news is constantly coming out, among which the sudden Guangzhou limit policy is undoubtedly undoubtedly Seriously hit the confidence of the automotive industry. If this trend continues, it is expected that the automobile manufacturing PMI will continue to be sluggish in August.
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