Export tax rebates may change Shanghai Aluminum's weakness is harder to change than two trading days. London's aluminum is under certain pressure near 1760. The characteristics of the recent two days of the disk are all maintained at high levels in the intraday, and the price in the tail market has rapidly declined. The main driving force behind the profit-taking is long, and after a continuous depreciation of the U.S. dollar, a slight rebound in the near future also poses some pressure on the board. However, on the technical graph, the overall upward pattern has not changed, and the market outlook is likely to rise further after adjustment. On the 13th, the performance of Shanghai Aluminum continued to be weak and trading was deserted. After the AL411 contract opened lower at 15790 in early trading, the full-day price remained at a narrow range between 15710-15790, and the closing price closed at 15770. The entire day's turnover was only 6722, and the position decreased by 1160 to 28202. Technically, the short-term moving averages are intertwined, indicating that there is no obvious direction in the current market, and the board is difficult to find in the short term. In terms of fundamentals, the national plan for the export of aluminum ingots has recently been reduced to zero and the tariff is increased by 5%. If this information is true, the export tax rebate rate for aluminum ingots will be significantly adjusted after the reduction from 15% on 1 January 2004 to 8%. Calculated by the processing and trading methods of materials, the export tax rebate rate for aluminum ingots has been lowered by 8% again, which means that the export of aluminum ingots per ton will directly reduce the tax rebate income by around 800 yuan, while the increase of 5% tariff will increase the export cost by 450 yuan/ton. The cost of general trade increases more. Due to the current domestic and international premium of 40-45 US dollars, the export of aluminum ingots has been in a loss state. If the above policy is implemented, the possibility of domestic aluminum ingot exports will no longer exist, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory can only be passed slowly through the domestic Digestion, the suppression of Shanghai aluminum stocks will continue for a longer period of time. The decline in export tax rebates is evident in further suppressing the overheating of aluminum investment. According to customs statistics, as of May, China's unforged aluminum imports were 427,300 tons, a cumulative increase of 37%. Exports reached 49.21 million tons, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year. From the above data, we can see that this year's increase in exports of aluminum ingots in China will be significantly smaller than the increase in imports, which will inevitably lead to a reduction in net exports. If the above policy is implemented, we believe that in the period to come, domestic exports of aluminum ingot The number will drop sharply again. In the short term, the inventory issue is still the main factor affecting the current domestic aluminum prices. Spot prices are in a downturn and prices are under pressure. However, the high cost still has great support for the futures price, and the downside price of the futures price is difficult to open. The trend in the latter period may remain within a narrow range between 15500-16000, and there may be further downward movements in the focus of the transaction.