On Tuesday, the aluminum aluminum LME aluminum in Shanghai fell, and all of them have a low open, with the main force Al0501 opening at 90 points lower at 15880, maintaining a low volatility in early trading, closing slightly lower, with no change in positions. With the admittance of air funds, the period price dropped sharply, closing at 15630, which was a 310-point drop from yesterday; the Al0412 contract also fell sharply, led by a long active bull market, which was 280 points lower than yesterday. As the US dollar regained strength against the euro yesterday, LME-based metals closed down on the 8th, with a larger fall in nickel and aluminum futures. LME three-month aluminum fell 26 US dollars to 1,802, a 1.1% drop on the 8th. Since the fundamentals of the aluminum market have not changed much, the trend basically revolves around the trend of the US dollar. LME stocks have remained at a level of over 700,000 tons for 2 months, and written-off warrants have fallen to a low level in six months. LME aluminum spot premiums are gradually decreasing. Regardless of the situation from the spot supply situation, or inventory changes, or events such as strikes that affect production, there is no reason why international aluminum prices continue to rise. From the domestic spot perspective, the spot aluminum price in the Shanghai market continued to fall after falling below 16,000. Today's transaction price is between 15900-15930, which is a lot lower than yesterday's 15960-15980 trading range. The drop in spot prices continued to suppress the price fluctuation range. China's aluminum export tax rebate policy is still suppressing the gradual shift in the focus of Shanghai aluminum price shocks, Minmetals executives today gems, is expected today's electrolytic aluminum production increased by 20% compared to 2003 to 6.6 million tons, but the 2005 output growth rate will be Slowing down, addiction credit tightening policy will reduce the demand for aluminum in China's construction and other related industries. Technically, from the perspective of the Al0501 K-line, the 10-day moving average has long suppressed the futures price, and the shock center continues to fall. Today, it has emerged from a big negative line, making the period price broken; the KD indicator has broken down after bonding and the market outlook is trending. Weak. Market outlook: In the absence of new fundamentals, the export tax rebate policy will dominate the aluminum market for a long period of time, and Shanghai aluminum will continue to be dominated by shocks in the short-term. It is recommended that long-term investors maintain short-term thinking.