At the end of last year, many industry experts predicted a slight increase in furniture prices. However, with the implementation of the new “National Five Articles†in March, which continue to impose real estate purchase restrictions, some analysts have revised their forecasts, suggesting that prices may not only fail to rise but could even fall. What’s the actual trend?
During the Guangzhou International Furniture Fair and the JSWB Home Purchasing Fair, reporters gathered insights from the Provincial Furniture Association and exhibitors. Overall, it seems that this year's prices will remain relatively stable compared to last year, though different categories are expected to show varying trends—some may rise, while others might fall.
During a lunch break, the reporter had a brief conversation with exhibitors from Henan, Shaanxi, and other regions. In their view, the overall furniture market has not seen significant price changes since the end of last year, but specific categories are showing divergent patterns.
Wang Ke, president of the Guangdong Furniture Association, stated that panel furniture prices are likely to decline. Zhong Haizhou, assistant to the chairman of the Federal Board of Directors, echoed this sentiment, citing ongoing issues such as overcapacity in panel furniture production and excessive retail inventory. Additionally, the continued real estate regulations have not eased, making it difficult for the oversupply problem to resolve quickly. As a result, price reductions are expected this year.
However, Zhong Haizhou added, “The drop may not happen immediately. With rising minimum wages across regions, operational costs for businesses are increasing. Even if companies don’t want to raise prices, they’re reluctant to lower them either.†He noted that after the May Day holiday, the situation could change. If sales don’t meet expectations, some companies may choose to cut losses rather than hold onto unsold stock, especially given the challenging market conditions from last year.
Solid wood furniture, on the other hand, is expected to see a steady price increase. Wang Ke believes that solid wood furniture prices will rise, while Zhong Haizhou takes a more cautious stance. He pointed out that the control over resource-based raw materials is becoming stricter, and wages for skilled workers like wood carvers have increased by up to 100%. These factors are creating strong upward pressure on costs. Moreover, the overcapacity issue in solid wood products is less severe compared to panel furniture. Therefore, under the pressure of rising costs, solid wood furniture prices are likely to trend upward this year. However, whether companies will implement price increases immediately remains uncertain, as many are still hesitant due to weak market demand and are choosing to reduce profit margins instead.
For mahogany furniture, Baisen Furniture, which recently launched a line of mahogany products, reported that prices are expected to remain relatively stable.
Regarding sofas, soft beds, and mattress furniture, the industry is still uncertain about the direction of price changes. This is because these products rely heavily on sponges, which are petroleum-based, and their prices are closely tied to future oil trends. However, it is estimated that prices won’t fluctuate too much, as large manufacturers have already secured agreements with suppliers, meaning that moderate oil price changes won’t significantly impact final retail prices.
As for outdoor furniture, Liang Luowen, a designer at Foshan Asia-Pacific Furniture, believes that prices will remain largely unchanged. Companies find it hard to absorb cost pressures if prices drop, but raising prices could also increase operational challenges.
Nevertheless, some Chengdu-based furniture brands, known for their design focus, are planning to increase prices this year. He Li, the design director at Dipu Home, told reporters that the company expects a 10% price increase due to high labor costs associated with handcrafted designs. Additionally, the unique aesthetic of their products makes them difficult to imitate, reducing competitive pressure and allowing for a gradual price adjustment.
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