At the end of last year, many industry experts anticipated a slight increase in furniture prices. However, with the implementation of the new "National Five Articles" in March, which continues to impose real estate purchase restrictions, some analysts now predict that prices may not only remain stable but could even see a decline. What’s the actual trend?
During the Guangzhou International Furniture Fair and the JSWB Home Purchasing Fair, reporters gathered insights from the Provincial Furniture Association and exhibitors. Overall, they indicated that this year’s prices are unlikely to differ much from last year, though certain categories might experience price increases while others could see drops.
During a lunch break, the reporter had a brief conversation with exhibitors from Henan and Shaanxi. In their view, the overall furniture market hasn’t changed significantly compared to the end of last year, but specific product lines are showing different trends.
Wang Ke, president of the Guangdong Furniture Association, noted that panel furniture prices are likely to decrease. Zhong Haizhou, assistant to the chairman of the Federal Board of Directors, echoed this sentiment. He explained that overcapacity and excess inventory in the panel furniture sector remain unresolved, and with real estate regulations still in place, the oversupply situation is unlikely to change soon. As a result, price reductions are expected this year.
However, Zhong added, “The drop may not happen immediately. With rising minimum wages across regions, production costs for all companies are increasing. Even if they don’t dare to raise prices, they’re reluctant to cut them either.†He suggested that after the May Day holiday, the situation could shift. If sales don’t improve, some companies may prefer to take losses rather than hold onto unsold stock, especially since the market last year was not very strong, and some firms couldn’t sustain it.
Solid wood furniture, on the other hand, is expected to see a steady price increase. Wang Ke believes that solid wood prices will rise. Zhong Haizhou took a more cautious stance, stating that stricter controls on resource-based raw materials and rising wages for skilled workers—some of whom earn up to 100% more—will put upward pressure on costs. Additionally, the overcapacity issue in solid wood furniture is less severe than in panel furniture, so under the pressure of rising costs, price increases are likely to be a trend this year.
That said, Zhong added, “Whether companies will raise prices right away is hard to say. The market remains weak, and many businesses are choosing to compress profit margins rather than increase prices immediately.â€
Regarding mahogany furniture, a representative from Baisen Furniture, which recently launched a line of mahogany products, told reporters that prices are expected to stay relatively stable.
As for sofas, soft beds, and mattress furniture, industry insiders say it’s too early to determine the direction. These products rely heavily on sponges, which are petroleum-based, and their prices are closely tied to oil market trends. However, initial estimates suggest that prices won’t fluctuate too much, as large companies have already secured agreements with suppliers, meaning minor oil price changes won’t significantly impact the final retail price.
For outdoor furniture, Liang Luowen, a designer at Foshan's Asia-Pacific Furniture, believes prices will remain largely unchanged. Companies find it difficult to absorb cost pressures if prices fall, but raising them could also increase operational challenges.
Still, some Chengdu-based furniture brands focusing on design are planning price hikes. He Li, design director at Dipu Home, revealed that the company expects a 10% price increase this year. This is due to the high labor costs associated with handcrafted items and the unique designs that are hard to replicate, giving them a competitive edge without significant pressure from imitators.
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