The Statistics Bureau released the economic data for October on the 10th. As the opening month of the fourth quarter, a series of economic data including CPI and PPI have received much attention. According to media and professional estimates here, CPI growth may still not be negative, but the decline will be further narrowed, and the overall data will continue to pick up.
CPI decline further narrows prices and regains upward trend Since the initial stimulus package of China's economic stimulus package, the debate on inflation and deflation in the industry has not stopped. Therefore, CPI data to measure the price level will undoubtedly continue to receive much attention. According to a research report released by the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center recently, the CPI growth in October was around -0.7%, and the year-on-year decline was further narrowed. According to the report, the prices of agricultural products monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce were all in decline in October, making the year-on-year decline in CPI in October less narrow than that in the previous month.
Lu Zhengwei, an economist at Industrial Bank, believes that although the decline in CPI and industrial product price (PPI) will be sharply narrowed in October, it will still be negative. The CPI will increase by 0.1% from the previous month; the growth rate will be -0.4%, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.
Guotai Junan expects CPI to fall by 0.6% year-on-year in October and PPI to fall by 6% year-on-year, with the declines narrowing by 0.2 and 1 percentage point respectively from the previous month. Dong Xianan, chief macro analyst of Industrial Securities, expects CPI and PPI to fall by 0.5% and 5% respectively in October, and the overall price has shown a steady upward trend.
For the future price trend, Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst of the Bank of Communications Research Department, said that the price recovery trend is established, and prices will return to the upward trend next year. It is expected that the CPI will increase by 4% year-on-year.
Earlier, according to data released by the People's Bank of China, China's CPI consensus composite index slowed down in the third quarter, showing signs of bottoming out. The central bank expects CPI to start to rebound after bottoming out at the end of this year. Inflation expectations continue to strengthen, but credit will remain high. .
Zhongjin’s Ha Jiming predicted that investment, consumption and industrial production continued to rise strongly in October, and the year-on-year decline in exports further narrowed, and deflationary pressure continued to ease. The CPI may turn positive in November and will remain high until then, reaching 5% in the middle of next year. In the next six months, inflation will rise.
The overall data continues to pick up. New credit may fall. At the same time, for other series of data, industry analysts said that although the holiday factors caused the previous month's working day to be lower than previous years, the economic data in October continued to pick up overall. It is expected that industrial added value, investment, consumption and other data will continue to remain high in October; credit data may fall sharply.
The political commissar of Lu expects that China's industrial added value data will increase by 17.3% in October, a sharp increase from the previous month. He said that the stable production of major industries and the continued improvement of exports will be the main factors for the continued strong recovery of data.
As real estate investment continues to heat up, driving investment in real estate-related industries, corporate expectations for the economy have generally improved and expanded investment demand. Dong Xianan expects urban fixed asset investment to increase by 33.5% in October. At the same time, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 16.1% year-on-year and continued to maintain high growth.
The previous report of the central bank also predicted that loan demand will remain stable due to the large-scale credit funds required for the start-up projects in the previous period and the increase in real estate investment.
Due to the recovery of major economies, the gradual recovery of consumption in Europe and the United States has increased China's external demand. It is expected that China's foreign trade will continue to pick up. Song Yu, a macro economist at Goldman Sachs Asia China, believes that the growth rate of fixed asset investment in October was 35%, which was little compared with September. The actual retail sales growth rate will be at a high level of 17.3%.
Due to the strengthening of the banking sector's risk control and capital adequacy requirements, the pace of domestic bank credit lending has slowed significantly in the second half of the year. The agency generally predicts that the credit supply in October will continue this trend, which will be significantly lower than that in September. It is expected that the new RMB loan will be at 300 billion yuan.
Since October is the first month of the fourth quarter and the eleven long holiday factors, CICC expects that the new credit in October will continue to grow at a lower level in the past years, significantly dropping to 150 billion to 200 billion yuan. Around, but the loans in November and December will rebound significantly.
CPI decline further narrows prices and regains upward trend Since the initial stimulus package of China's economic stimulus package, the debate on inflation and deflation in the industry has not stopped. Therefore, CPI data to measure the price level will undoubtedly continue to receive much attention. According to a research report released by the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center recently, the CPI growth in October was around -0.7%, and the year-on-year decline was further narrowed. According to the report, the prices of agricultural products monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce were all in decline in October, making the year-on-year decline in CPI in October less narrow than that in the previous month.
Lu Zhengwei, an economist at Industrial Bank, believes that although the decline in CPI and industrial product price (PPI) will be sharply narrowed in October, it will still be negative. The CPI will increase by 0.1% from the previous month; the growth rate will be -0.4%, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.
Guotai Junan expects CPI to fall by 0.6% year-on-year in October and PPI to fall by 6% year-on-year, with the declines narrowing by 0.2 and 1 percentage point respectively from the previous month. Dong Xianan, chief macro analyst of Industrial Securities, expects CPI and PPI to fall by 0.5% and 5% respectively in October, and the overall price has shown a steady upward trend.
For the future price trend, Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst of the Bank of Communications Research Department, said that the price recovery trend is established, and prices will return to the upward trend next year. It is expected that the CPI will increase by 4% year-on-year.
Earlier, according to data released by the People's Bank of China, China's CPI consensus composite index slowed down in the third quarter, showing signs of bottoming out. The central bank expects CPI to start to rebound after bottoming out at the end of this year. Inflation expectations continue to strengthen, but credit will remain high. .
Zhongjin’s Ha Jiming predicted that investment, consumption and industrial production continued to rise strongly in October, and the year-on-year decline in exports further narrowed, and deflationary pressure continued to ease. The CPI may turn positive in November and will remain high until then, reaching 5% in the middle of next year. In the next six months, inflation will rise.
The overall data continues to pick up. New credit may fall. At the same time, for other series of data, industry analysts said that although the holiday factors caused the previous month's working day to be lower than previous years, the economic data in October continued to pick up overall. It is expected that industrial added value, investment, consumption and other data will continue to remain high in October; credit data may fall sharply.
The political commissar of Lu expects that China's industrial added value data will increase by 17.3% in October, a sharp increase from the previous month. He said that the stable production of major industries and the continued improvement of exports will be the main factors for the continued strong recovery of data.
As real estate investment continues to heat up, driving investment in real estate-related industries, corporate expectations for the economy have generally improved and expanded investment demand. Dong Xianan expects urban fixed asset investment to increase by 33.5% in October. At the same time, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 16.1% year-on-year and continued to maintain high growth.
The previous report of the central bank also predicted that loan demand will remain stable due to the large-scale credit funds required for the start-up projects in the previous period and the increase in real estate investment.
Due to the recovery of major economies, the gradual recovery of consumption in Europe and the United States has increased China's external demand. It is expected that China's foreign trade will continue to pick up. Song Yu, a macro economist at Goldman Sachs Asia China, believes that the growth rate of fixed asset investment in October was 35%, which was little compared with September. The actual retail sales growth rate will be at a high level of 17.3%.
Due to the strengthening of the banking sector's risk control and capital adequacy requirements, the pace of domestic bank credit lending has slowed significantly in the second half of the year. The agency generally predicts that the credit supply in October will continue this trend, which will be significantly lower than that in September. It is expected that the new RMB loan will be at 300 billion yuan.
Since October is the first month of the fourth quarter and the eleven long holiday factors, CICC expects that the new credit in October will continue to grow at a lower level in the past years, significantly dropping to 150 billion to 200 billion yuan. Around, but the loans in November and December will rebound significantly.
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