There has been almost no transition from the depression to the hot, and the photovoltaic industry suddenly entered the spring from the cold winter last year. Since the fourth quarter of 2009, the PV market has recovered, and by the first half of this year, the form has been great.
Recently, the reporter learned from interviews with many companies that most of these companies are full of orders, and they are still unable to meet the demand. But analysts generally believe that the PV industry blowout may not last.
International market demand blowout
The popularity of the photovoltaic industry can be seen in the demand for upstream raw material polysilicon.
According to the latest data from the China Investment Consulting Industry Research Center, GCL-Poly produced 5713 tons of polysilicon in the first five months of this year, an increase of 300% over the same period last year. In the first five months, the cumulative import of polysilicon in China was 15,500 tons, an increase of 121% compared with 7,007 tons in the same period last year. According to the public data, Zhejiang, the second-largest solar photovoltaic production base in Jiangsu, has exported 4.73 million solar cells in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year increase of 250%.
The recovery of the photovoltaic industry is closely related to the strong demand in the international market. According to the data, China's photovoltaic cell production jumped from 3MW (MW) in 2001 to 4000MW in 2009, accounting for 40% of the global PV market, ranking first in the world, but 99% of China's PV products are exported.
“The main reason for the surge in global PV market demand is driven by the news of the German subsidy adjustment. Many German investors want to grab the PV modules before the official downgrade.†Jiang Qian, chief researcher of the new energy industry of China Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. In an interview with reporters, the news that Germany's weakening subsidies came out last year, the German PV installation capacity increased.
In 2009, Germany's PV installation capacity reached 3.8GW (GW), of which the German PV installation capacity reached 2.3GW in the fourth quarter, and the installed capacity in December was 1.5GW. According to statistics from China Investment Consulting, the global PV installation last year was only 7GW. The rapid growth of the German market has driven the domestic PV industry to quickly bottom out and ushered in a bumper harvest.
On the other hand, the capacity of the global market is also expanding. Not only some European countries are stepping up their photovoltaic power generation projects, but also the United States, Japan and other countries are actively deploying. China also announced the second batch of bidding for photovoltaic power generation this year in June, totaling 280MW, compared with only 10MW last year. Jiang Qian said that it is predicted that the global PV installation capacity will be twice this year, which will bring new growth points to China's PV industry. After the economic crisis, major international PV companies have slowed down the pace of expansion, and the supply and demand of products are in an unbalanced state.
Hot market or not sustainable
"Photovoltaic product price fluctuations are fierce, and the price rebound will not last long." Wan Zhi Securities energy and new energy analyst Yu Zhixiang said that the current PV industry market is bottoming out, but in the long run, the rise is difficult For succession.
After the German market releases its energy, demand must shrink. In the second half of this year and even next year, the probability of such a surge in demand is very low. The demand for tonics is accidental and not the norm in the market. Although the global PV installation capacity is expanding, the international giants are expanding their production capacity. German PV manufacturers such as Q-Cells and SolarWorld have a series of actions, and the competition will be more intense. At the same time, due to the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis and the restart of the RMB exchange rate reform, the cost pressure of China's photovoltaic products will further increase. From the perspective of export, the market does not seem to be as good as imagined.
The total amount of domestic tenders is only 280MW, which is insignificant compared to the 4000MW photovoltaic cell production. It will take time to rely on the domestic market to digest huge amounts of photovoltaic products.
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