2011 is a difficult year for the photovoltaic industry. Due to overcapacity, the European debt crisis and the US double-reverse, the photovoltaic industry has been hit hard and it is difficult. As the European debt crisis intensifies and the industry's concerns about the US economy's second recession intensify, the current PV market is already very different from the hot scene in 2010. Asian polysilicon spot prices have fallen overall, buyers have delayed purchases, producers and sellers operate Dreary, the market has entered the winter ahead of schedule. With the arrival of 2012, the photovoltaic industry has frequently reported good news: the domestic market is about to start, the industry integration is accelerating, and the future PV market is in China. However, although favorable news has emerged, the photovoltaic industry has not yet emerged from the cold winter. What is the reason that hinders the development of the photovoltaic industry? ![]()
I. Policy According to relevant sources, the “Golden Sun†project will be a supplement to the “Solar Roof Plan†issued by the Ministry of Finance. According to the notice of the National Development and Reform Commission, the state will implement a nationwide unified benchmark on-grid tariff for non-tendered solar photovoltaic power generation projects, tentatively set at 1 yuan to 1.15 yuan per kWh. Implement a national unified benchmark on-grid tariff for non-tendered solar photovoltaic power generation projects. The solar photovoltaic power generation project approved for construction before July 1, 2011 and completed and put into operation on December 31, 2011, has not yet been approved. The on-grid price is uniformly approved at 1.15 yuan per kWh. Solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved on or after July 1, 2011, and solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved before July 1, 2011 but not yet completed and put into operation as of December 31, 2011, except for Tibet, still implement 1.15 kWh per kWh. In addition to the on-grid tariff of the yuan, the on-grid tariffs of other provinces and cities are implemented at 1 yuan per kWh. In addition, through the concession bidding to determine the owner's solar photovoltaic power generation project, its on-grid electricity price is executed according to the winning bid price, and the winning bid price should not be higher than the solar photovoltaic power generation benchmark price. The National Development and Reform Commission will adjust the PV benchmark price in a timely manner according to factors such as changes in investment costs and technological progress. On May 3, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Energy Administration issued a notice saying that after reviewing the Golden Sun Demonstration Project, the total scale of China's Golden Sun Demonstration Project was 1,709 MW. At the same time, due to the continuous decline in the construction cost of photovoltaic power generation systems, the subsidy standard for user-side photovoltaic power generation projects in 2012 was determined to be 5.5 yuan / watt. This is also a further reduction in the subsidy standard for user-side photovoltaic power generation projects. As we all know, the current cost of solar photovoltaic power generation is relatively high, and the country's downward adjustment of photovoltaic subsidies will undoubtedly increase the invisible pressure on PV companies. Merchants are all profit-oriented, no one will do the loss of business, if investing in photovoltaic power plants is not worth the loss, then who will continue to invest? Second, the international economic crisis With the outbreak of the European debt crisis, the world began to fall into the economic crisis, the economies of all countries are sluggish. In order to cope with the economic crisis, some countries began to "demolition of the East Wall to fill the Western Wall", they have greatly reduced PV subsidies to reduce fiscal expenditures, ease financial pressures, and ensure people's livelihood. On March 29 this year, the German House of Commons passed the latest proposal, announcing that after a one-time reduction of subsidies from April 1st, from May to the end of November, the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation projects will start at 1% per month. reduce. This means that Germany’s fear of a sharp cut in PV project subsidies has been a foregone conclusion. The new downward adjustment plan shows that the 10MW or above power station no longer enjoys the feed-in tariff subsidy; the new installed capacity target for 2012~2013 is 2.5~3.5GW/year, after which the target will drop 400MW per year, and the new installed target will drop in 2017. To 0.9~1.4GW; only 85% of the small PV system's power generation is subsidized, and the medium and large-scale system is 90%; the large-scale project's electricity price is lowered faster than the small roof project, and the 2016 1~10MW scale photovoltaic power station is connected to the Internet. The electricity price reached 6.75 Euro cents / kWh, close to the German traditional thermal power feed-in tariff. The policy of gradually decreasing subsidies clearly conveyed the German government’s gradual release, testing and encouraging the photovoltaic industry to reduce costs and self-development intentions. Shortly after the reduction of PV subsidies in Germany, Italy also introduced a draft of the PV subsidy in April. The subsidy may be cut in half, and the implementation time is July 1. A German research report shows that the German solar photovoltaic industry consumes about 50% of the government's green energy subsidies, but only meets about 3% of Germany's electricity demand. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s energy policy adviser and economist Erdman also said that the development of solar energy may be the "most expensive mistake" in Germany's environmental policy. Germany, which is under the cloud of the European debt crisis, is constantly reducing its PV subsidies, and some even advocate braking. According to the 2010 power operation published by the National Development and Reform Commission of China, the national power generation in 2010 was 4,411.3 billion kWh, an increase of 13.3% over the previous year, an increase of 7 percentage points over the previous year. Among them, thermal power is 3,325.3 billion kWh, accounting for 80.3%; hydropower is 662.2 billion kWh, accounting for 16%; nuclear power is 73.4 billion kWh, accounting for 1.77%; wind power is 43 billion kWh, accounting for 1.04%, other power generation such as solar energy The proportion is 0.89%. It can be seen that in this feast of the electricity market, PV has only played a negligible role, and the main scenes are completely performed by thermal power. Therefore, the position of solar photovoltaic in the power generation market is not so important. Third, photovoltaic power generation failed to achieve grid connection At present, the photovoltaic power application market power station construction is mainly divided into two categories, one is the construction of large-scale desert photovoltaic power plants, and the other is the roof photovoltaic construction such as the "Golden Sun" demonstration project. From the current layout of large-scale photovoltaic power plants, because large-scale photovoltaic power plants are far away from the power load zone, and the local power grid infrastructure is extremely imperfect, the electricity generated by photovoltaics is difficult to output, and the state has subsidized huge amounts of money but cannot get electricity. Difficulties, its development trend has a big step in the "wind power of the Three Gorges". Taking Qinghai as an example, the power generated by the Golmud photovoltaic power station in Qinghai's largest photovoltaic base needs to be connected to the grid by medium voltage or high voltage through a step-up transformer. The destination is 800-1000 km away from Xining, but after the power reaches Xining, Xining, which is rich in hydropower, has no capacity to dissipate. The power generated by photovoltaics has to continue to be transported to the east. The transmission distance is even several thousand kilometers. The limited power generated in the transmission process is exhausted, and the economic benefits of the power station cannot be discussed. In contrast, in the economically developed areas of eastern China, the power is tight and the state of power shortage is extremely low. The high sales price has become the biggest factor restricting the development of the eastern economy. Some industry experts have suggested: "A large-scale photovoltaic power station built in the western desert area cannot achieve local consumption, and it is difficult to solve the problem of power shortage in the east. It will consume a lot of material and financial resources through the grid transmission. It is not the best at the current stage in the country. The choice is even on a detour.†A person close to the decision-making level of the Golden Sun policy said that the biggest resistance to grid connection came from the grid company. According to him, since the Golden Sun policy encourages users to connect to the grid, use it on their own, and adopt a method of offsetting electricity, this has caused the owner to purchase electricity from the grid company significantly, which in turn affects the operating efficiency of the grid company. In this view, the aforementioned authoritative sources of China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association also agreed. The person also told reporters that the Golden Sun policy was mainly pushed by the Ministry of Finance, and the implementation of the policy did not coordinate with the grid company at the beginning, which led to difficulties in the integration of the later projects. Some enterprises have also provided evidence for the statement that “the grid is difficult to be in the grid companyâ€. An unnamed person from a contractor of the Golden Sun Project said that the construction of the Golden Sun project was cumbersome, requiring both the roof owner to have the willingness to install the Golden Sun project and the written opinion of the local grid company agreeing to the project. Therefore, even if many projects are reported, they may not be approved because the two problems are not solved. "Especially the approval of the grid company is very difficult to get." The person admitted to the reporter that from the experience of the construction of the Golden Sun project in the past two years, the proportion of projects that can finally approve the project is less than 10% of the initial number of projects. According to an industry insider who has long been concerned about the Golden Sun policy, some Golden Sun projects have obtained written consent from the grid company to agree to the grid before the application, but they will still be refused to connect to the grid for various reasons during the implementation of the project. "In this respect, the grid company is worried that the grid connection will affect its operating efficiency, and on the other hand, it still has doubts about the power quality of photovoltaics." The aforementioned industry insiders further explained to the reporter, "Photovoltaic power generation needs to be installed if it is connected to the grid. Reactive power compensation and other equipment, the grid company is not willing to bear for this extra investment." These factors have caused the Golden Sun project to sink into the grid, and the 40% grid connection rate does not seem to be groundless. Fourth, the foreign market continues to exert pressure At present, China's photovoltaic industry has been frequently suppressed by foreign markets, and the development of foreign markets has been hindered. In 2011, the United States launched a "double-reverse" of photovoltaics in China. After many delays, the US Department of Commerce issued a countervailing preliminary ruling on the afternoon of March 20 (the early morning of March 21, Beijing time), with a tax rate of 2.9%. To 4.73%. Anti-dumping duties will be ruled in May, and the industry is not optimistic about the final tariff. The domestic PV industry suffered from the winter of the industry last year. Several leading PV companies, such as Suntech, Trina Solar, LDK, etc., have begun to lay off staff and decompression, and the double-anti-application filed by the United States is considered to be worse. For the upcoming anti-dumping duties, and the final ruling of the future, PV companies still need to wait. According to documents provided by the US Department of Commerce, Wuxi Suntech Power Co., Ltd. has a PV countervailing duty rate of 2.9%. Changzhou Trina Solar Energy Co., Ltd. (Changzhou Trina Solar Energy Co., Ltd.) has a tax rate of 4.73%. The PV countervailing duty rate of other Chinese companies is 3.61%. Although the countervailing duty rate is lower than expected, this time, the anti-subsidy additional tariff will be back for three months. Chinese manufacturers will need to re-submit the countervailing duty when they enter the US component products at the end of last year. The disaster is not alone. On April 18th, the "China-India Trade Third Relief Cooperation Conference" was held at the "Indian Representative and the Small-scale Symposium of PV Major Export Representative Enterprises in Jiangsu Province" (hereinafter referred to as the China-India Conference). Through exchanges with Indian government officials and accompanying domestic business officials, representatives of participating companies have heard the “out of the box†– the Indian government’s anti-dumping policy for Chinese PV companies seems to have been quietly increasing. A representative of the participating company told this reporter that this closed-door meeting is a meeting of the Indian government to come to China to investigate and understand the situation after receiving an application for anti-dumping investigation by Indian PV companies. Prior to this, Indian Renewable Energy Minister Tarun Kapoor publicly stated to the media that some Indian companies are stepping up lobbying to the government to impose a 15% anti-dumping tariff on thin-film solar photovoltaic panels imported from China. Some senior government officials in India believe that although India is one of the fastest growing clean energy markets in the world, Indian solar equipment manufacturers are unable to share the benefits of market expansion, including Tata Ying Petroleum Solar, India. Many Indian companies, including solar companies and Mossole Solar, are unable to compete with Chinese companies. An official of the Fair Trade Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce, which is responsible for fair trade between developing countries, regions and China in the world, mentioned at the meeting that through a few days of accompanying research, he personally felt that "India Ministry of Commerce and Industry is pressing the United States." The latter may be a foregone conclusion, and the 'double counter' may be just a matter of time." Industry insiders also said that the current cost of selling solar panels in the US by PV companies is about 0.75 US dollars per watt, while the average price of US companies is about 0.97 US dollars / watt. With the successive introduction of countervailing duties and anti-dumping duties, the tax revenue of domestic PV companies exporting to the United States may increase by about 30%, which will cause domestic PV cell companies to lose their price advantage, lose their most important competitiveness, and face an outburst. . However, this is not the most worrying. At present, the main products of domestic PV companies are not sold to the United States, but to the European market, especially Germany. The industry is worried that if Germany follows the example of the United States, launching a "double-reverse" investigation on Chinese PV companies will cause a fatal blow to the Chinese PV industry. In order to cope with the serious damage to the possible exports, there are not many outlets for Chinese PV companies. Only by doing their own thing and opening up more markets, in the industry's view, the world's largest and most promising solar market is in China. It is understood that a number of PV companies have taken the domestic market as the focus of the attack. However, in addition to the domestic efforts of the domestic market, the policy package is also a crucial link. In summary, at present, China's photovoltaic industry faces double pressure from both domestic and foreign countries, and its development is slow. But the road is tortuous, and the future is bright. The market share of China and other non-European, Japanese and Japanese manufacturers has increased from 69% in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 78% in the fourth quarter of 2011, and will continue to grow to 79% in the fourth quarter of 2012. In 2011, China's domestic PV demand grew to 2.75 million kilowatts, and China is already the third largest photovoltaic market in the world after Germany and Italy. Under the influence of policy contraction, the PV demand in Germany and Italy faces huge uncertainties. China may become the world's largest PV market in 2012.
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