Abstract Polysilicon prices continue to rise in recent years According to research by third-party research institutes PVInsights, EnergyTrend, and Solarzoom, polysilicon prices have continued to rise in the near future. According to PVInsights data, polycrystalline crystals in the past month...
Polysilicon prices continue to rise in the near future According to research by third-party research institutes PVInsights, EnergyTrend, and Solarzoom, polysilicon prices have continued to rise recently. According to PVInsights, polysilicon prices have risen by 7% in the past month, EnergyTrend data has risen by 5%, and Solarzoom research prices have risen by 4%, mainly due to recent The demand is good, some polysilicon enterprises cut production, and polysilicon has a phenomenon of stockpiling.
Stable production pattern, polysilicon may increase further next year
Due to the large capital investment and the high barriers to entry of polysilicon, the new companies are unable to obtain acceptable ROEs at the current prices, so there will be no investment in the polysilicon industry. At the same time, although the production capacity of polysilicon is huge, most enterprises cannot meet the standards due to their scale and technology. Therefore, the cost will remain above the current price for a long time and cannot be started. The shutdown will further lead to corrosion of the equipment and may permanently exit the market. The current global production capacity of polysilicon is stable, and the global production capacity does not exceed 300,000 tons, and the corresponding demand is about 40~50GW. In the next year, the industry trend turned to optimism, downstream wafer companies to expand capacity, industry demand growth, polysilicon supply and demand pattern may be broken, polysilicon prices may rise.
TBEA's polysilicon business reached production, and the price increase will bring the performance elasticity of 0.15 yuan EPS
At present, the company's third phase of 12,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity has reached production. According to the shipments in recent months, it is predicted that polysilicon shipments will be basically in full production, and polysilicon production capacity will reach 15,000 tons next year. Due to the decline in new line marginal investment, unit depreciation is reduced. At the same time, using the power consumption advantage of Xinjiang, the company's polysilicon cost is expected to reach the level of 15 US dollars / kg. If the polysilicon price can guarantee the company's polysilicon profit per kilogram is 5 US dollars, it can contribute about 400 million profit, bringing EPS elasticity of 0.15 yuan.
risk warning
Polysilicon prices rose below the expected risk; the company's traditional business recovery was lower than expected.
Give a "Recommended" rating
We believe that as the highest barrier in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, the price of polysilicon will rise further next year. The company's polysilicon production capacity will reach 15,000 tons, and the cost is expected to further decrease. The rising polysilicon price will bring extremely high profit elasticity to the company. We predict the company 13~ The EPS of 15 years is 0.55/0.71/0.94 yuan respectively. We calculate the company's target price of 14.2 yuan with 20 times PE in 2014, and maintain the company's “recommended†investment rating.
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