In July, the overall macroeconomic data showed a trend of stabilization and recovery. From the perspective of the expansion of industrial value added in major industries, the production and supply of such industries as ferrous metal smelting and processing, automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery, electric power, and thermal power have increased significantly. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of the added value of chemical raw materials and products, non-metallic minerals, and textile industry all improved. Combined with the areas involved in the steady growth (mainly including railway infrastructure, power grid renovation, and urban infrastructure construction), it shows that the relevant policies have already shown the pull of industrial production.
Although the improvement of industrial output has driven the price rebound of industrial products, we believe that the strength and duration of the price rebound still need to be observed.
On the one hand, investment growth cannot be significantly improved. The main reasons are: (1) Insufficient supply of funds, year-on-year credit growth, and total social financing growth were 14.3% and 18.7%, respectively, which made it difficult to expand upwards; (2) Strengthening of shadow banking and local debt supervision may give rise to infrastructure and Real estate investment brings shocks; (3) The profitability of the manufacturing sector is squeezed by the lack of demand, raw material and debt costs, and the investment momentum will be inhibited.
On the other hand, from the PMI inventory of finished goods and raw materials, iron ore stocks and coking coal, the inventory level of the manufacturing industry is not low, and the incentive for companies to make up the stock is not clear.
Taking into account the stabilization of the economy and improvement of the micro-sector, we continue to be optimistic about the market. For cyclical stocks, we still have two concerns: (1) The strength and duration of the rebound in industrial product prices remains to be seen; (2) Local government debt supervision, shadow banking supervision, and interest rate liberalization will both accelerate the cycle and The impact of the weight plate.
Considering that the semi-annual report discloses the peak period, and the valuation of growth stocks and small and medium-sized sectors is high, we suggest that asset allocation gradually concentrates on companies whose performance is determined and whose performance exceeds expectations. Industry configuration recommendations: (1) Industries that meet structural adjustments for economic restructuring, such as new materials, energy conservation, environmental protection, non-banking finance, food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and cultural media; (2) Industries with marginal improvement, such as communications equipment , power equipment industry, animal husbandry and aquaculture.
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