As manufacturers expand their capacity, the global overcapacity crisis will not only appear in the PET industry, but also in the three major thermoplastic resin markets of PA, PC and ABS in the next five years.
At the 2014 Global Plastics Summit held in Chicago, United States on October 1-2, IHS market analysts pointed out that the current global PA6, PA6/6, PC and ABS resin have begun to show signs of excess capacity. It is expected that these excess capacity will be completely consumed by the market as early as 2019.
“At present, the global PA6 resin market has ample supply, and its demand is relatively flat. Therefore, the industry will face an oversupply situation for a long period of time,†said Paul Blanchard, director of engineering plastics business at IHS.
According to IHS, during the period from 2014 to 2016, a large number of new production facilities will be put into operation in China. Affected by this, the global PA6 market will supply much more than demand. In the next five years, global PA6 resin output will grow at a rate of 5.4% year-on-year. This rate is much higher than the 3.2% in 2009-2013.
"Although PA6's current production profits are relatively weak, its price may rise in the next few years, because manufacturers have been trying hard to maximize profits and make up for the losses previously incurred," Blanchard added.
In recent years, the market trend of PA 6/6 is similar to that of PA 6. In the next few years, it will also face global overcapacity. IHS said that PA 6/6 excess capacity will be the first to appear in the Middle East market. In 2015-2017, PA 6/6 output in the region will increase significantly. Although the demand for this type of resin in the automobile manufacturing sector has increased, it is difficult to completely resolve the overcapacity crisis by relying solely on a single market.
With the increase of new round of production in Northeast Asia, during the period from 2014 to 2020, the global PC market will not be able to escape the "doom" of overcapacity. According to David Gee, Chief Market Analyst of IHS, the global PC market demand growth rate will reach 3.6% during 2014-2019, which will be lower than the growth rate in the past five years. David also pointed out that although the market is oversupply, global PC prices are expected to stabilize in 2015.
In addition, IHS believes that despite the wide range of applications and the slow development of some capacity expansion projects, ABS resin will still oversupply in the next five years. At the same time, with the closure of Sabic Engineering Plastics' West Virginia production facility in the United States, North American ABS market overcapacity may have improved.
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