Dong Xiucheng: China's downward adjustment of energy self-sufficiency originates from the treatment of

In 2013, China’s energy self-sufficiency rate was 90.7%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous year. The reason is because the energy structure is continuously improving, the proportion of clean energy such as natural gas is rising, and the proportion of coal is decreasing. According to China's energy development strategy, by 2020, China's energy self-sufficiency capacity should remain at around 85%.

In the future, how will China's energy structure change? What are the opinions of industry experts? The "Daily Economic News" reporter conducted an interview with the above questions.

Yesterday (November 19), the State Council issued the "Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020)". By 2020, the total domestic primary energy production reached 4.2 billion tons of standard coal, and the energy self-sufficiency capacity remained at 85%. Left and right, the oil storage-production ratio has increased to 14-15, and the energy reserve emergency response system has been basically completed.

According to the China Mineral Resources Report (2014) issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources, in 2013, China’s energy self-sufficiency rate was 90.7%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous year.

"Daily Economic News" reporter learned that coal accounted for 66% of China's energy consumption structure last year, but due to the continuous improvement of China's energy structure, the proportion of clean energy such as natural gas continues to rise, and the proportion of coal has declined. Last year, China's coal import dependence was only 8.13%, so the reduction in coal use caused a gradual decline in the overall energy self-sufficiency rate.

In response to China's energy self-sufficiency rate and other related issues, "Daily Economic News" reporter (hereinafter referred to as NBD) interviewed Dong Xiucheng, director of China Oil and Gas Industry Development Research Center of China University of Petroleum.

China's coal consumption is decreasing

NBD: According to the plan announced by the State Council, in 2020, China's energy self-sufficiency capacity should be maintained at 85%. At present, China's energy self-sufficiency capacity exceeds 90%. Why is there a decline?

Dong Xiucheng: The so-called energy self-sufficiency ability is to convert various energy consumption into the form of standard coal, and then calculate the quantity of imported energy and the data of domestic energy. The final country's share of total energy consumption is the energy self-sufficiency rate.

For China, the decline in energy self-sufficiency is related to China's energy structure adjustment. Due to the weather control such as smog, the use of coal has been greatly reduced. Then, the proportion of oil and gas will increase year by year, and natural gas and oil are largely dependent on imports, which reduces China's energy self-sufficiency.

In China's energy consumption structure last year, coal accounted for 66%, oil accounted for 18.4%, natural gas accounted for 5.8%, and hydropower, nuclear power and wind power accounted for 9.8%. The majority of coal, the dependence on foreign countries is very low, so it will lead to a decline in self-sufficiency.

NBD: What problems will China's energy self-sufficiency rate bring down? Will the 85% ratio affect China's energy security?

Dong Xiucheng: From the perspective of energy security, the higher the energy self-sufficiency of a country, the better it is naturally, so it will not be subject to people. If the self-sufficiency is lower, the more vulnerable it is to the international market, especially the price.

The proportion of 85% can be understood as follows. According to the requirements, non-fossil energy accounts for 15% of primary energy consumption in 2020, and the proportion of coal consumption is controlled within 62%. In the future, the proportion of natural gas imported through pipelines will reach more than 10%. Compared with the current energy consumption structure in China, coal accounts for 66%, and the proportion of coal declines. At the same time, natural gas accounts for 5.8%, and the proportion will increase significantly.

However, in theory, a country's energy self-sufficiency will not have an absolute value. If the self-sufficiency rate of this value is not good for this country, such a conclusion cannot be made. For example, Japan and South Korea have low energy self-sufficiency and cannot say that they are not good. It is only in theory that self-sufficiency is of course the best, so that it is not subject to people in the international market.

China's energy replacement rate is reasonably controllable

NBD: What is the energy self-sufficiency of the major countries in the world? The United States has improved its energy self-sufficiency in recent years. How did they do it?

Dong Xiucheng: As far as the countries of the world are concerned, the proportion of self-sufficiency is different. Like Japan and South Korea, their energy self-sufficiency is very low, and they rely almost entirely on energy imports. India’s self-sufficiency is certainly weaker than ours.

The energy self-sufficiency of the United States has increased in recent years, which is related to changes in their energy structure. After the shale gas revolution, the proportion of shale gas and shale oil in US energy is increasing, and their coal use is also declining.

NBD: The plan mentions that the oil storage-production ratio has increased to 14-15. What do you think of this figure?

Dong Xiucheng: The so-called oil storage-production ratio is the amount of reserves that a country has discovered in the past, and then divided by the output of the year. Every year, China is mining, and there will be new and proven storage. At present, China's oil storage and mining ratio is also around a dozen.

For example, if our newly added proved reserves of oil were higher than the amount of mining, it would be ideal, indicating that this reserve-to-production ratio has increased. There is also a term in the oil and gas field called replacement rate. Usually, the higher the replacement rate, the higher the replacement rate. If 200 million tons of oil are mined this year, but the newly discovered increased reserves are less than 200 million tons, it means that the oil will be more The less.

In the future, China's energy replacement rate is still within a reasonable and controllable range, and energy security is also guaranteed. After all, on the one hand, we are constantly developing new energy sources, such as wind energy, solar energy, nuclear energy, etc. On the other hand, the state is constantly developing more stringent standards, such as The fuel consumption limit for vehicles is required to reach 5 liters/100 kilometers by 2020.

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